Risk Reward Calculator and Win Rate Grid
Risk to reward and win rate only mean something together. This Risk Reward Calculator takes a single pair of numbers and shows the expectancy in R, the breakeven win rate for that ratio, and the ratio you would need at your win rate. Below it, a grid maps every combination from 0.5R to 5R against win rates from 20% to 80%, coloured by whether expectancy is positive or negative, so you can see where the breakeven line sits.
The grid is arithmetic, not a forecast. It does not include costs and it says nothing about whether any given win rate is achievable. Everything runs in your browser.
Expectancy grid, R multiple against win rate
Each cell is expectancy in R. Gold cells sit on the breakeven line. The last column is the exact breakeven win rate for that ratio.
How to use it
- Reward to risk, the average winner divided by the average loser, in R.
- Win rate, the share of trades that finish positive.
Expectancy in R is (win rate × R) - (1 - win rate). Breakeven win rate for a ratio is 1 ÷ (1 + R). The ratio needed to break even at a given win rate is (1 - win rate) ÷ win rate. The grid applies the first formula to every cell and highlights the one closest to your inputs.
Read the grid by row. As the ratio rises, the win rate needed falls. A 3R system breaks even at 25%. A 0.5R system needs 66.7% just to stand still.
FAQ
What is a good risk to reward ratio?
There is no universal answer. A high ratio with a low win rate and a low ratio with a high win rate can have the same expectancy. What matters is where the pair lands relative to the breakeven line, after costs.
What win rate do I need for 1:2?
Above 33.3% before costs. At exactly one third the expectancy is zero. Spreads and commissions push the real breakeven a little higher.
Why are the gold cells not exactly zero?
The grid uses round steps, so the exact breakeven usually falls between two cells. Cells within 0.05R of zero are marked gold and the final column gives the exact breakeven win rate for the row.
Does a positive cell mean the strategy works?
No. It means those two numbers, if they held true over many trades and before costs, would produce a positive average. Whether you can achieve that win rate at that ratio is a separate question the grid cannot answer.
Is anything sent to a server?
No. The page computes everything in your browser.
See also the free trading tools hub, the expectancy calculator and the risk of ruin calculator. Please read our risk disclosure.