FOMC meeting: live odds and countdown

When the Fed decides, what markets price, and every Fed release as it lands.

Decision day, step by step

Day 1Meeting startsNo announcement. Markets drift and wait.
2:00pm New YorkStatementThe rate decision and a short statement. The first spike.
2:30pm New YorkPress conferenceThe Chair takes questions. Often the second, bigger move.
3 weeks laterMinutesThe full discussion. Can shift odds for the next meeting.

How a surprise usually moves markets

Surprise USD Gold US yields Stocks
Hawkish (higher rates) Up Down Up Down
Dovish (lower rates) Down Up Down Up

The first reaction, not a rule. What matters is the decision against what was priced, so check the odds above.

Meeting dates

27 and 28 Oct 20268 and 9 Dec 202626 and 27 Jan 202716 and 17 Mar 202727 and 28 Apr 20278 and 9 Jun 2027

Gold outline: new economic projections and dot plot. Source: Federal Reserve.

Holding trades into the Fed?Size the position first so one spike cannot hurt the account.
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Questions

When is the next FOMC meeting?

27 and 28 October 2026, with the decision at 2pm New York time on the 28th. The countdown at the top of this page shows it in your own time.

What time is the FOMC announcement in the UK?

2pm New York time, which is usually 7pm UK time in summer and 6pm in winter. On 28 October 2026 it is 6pm UK, because the UK changes its clocks a week before the US.

What is the dot plot?

A chart of where each Fed official expects rates to be over the next few years. It comes out at four meetings a year (March, June, September and December) and can move markets as much as the decision itself.

How are the odds calculated?

They are live prices on prediction markets (Kalshi or Polymarket), where traders buy contracts on each outcome. A price of 72 cents means the market gives that outcome about a 72% chance.

Should I trade the FOMC release?

Spreads widen and price can jump past stops in seconds. Many traders flatten or reduce size beforehand. Nebula EAs can pause and protect open trades around releases like this one. For live news across every major currency, see the markets hub.

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